KTIM - FM 89.1

4 hours ago

Final Thursday Bertha Update
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal regions of Brazoria, Chambers, Galveston, and Jefferson Counties, which means that topical storm winds are expected somewhere within the warning area. These likely won’t be felt along the coast until the afternoon and evening, if at all.

Bertha remains a lopsided system with wind shear still tilting the circulation southwestward. There are actually two centers we are tracking today, the low-level center near the coast of Louisiana and the mid-level center in that big blob of storms over the Gulf. I’ve marked them with “L” and “M” on the map.

The pattern the last few days has been for the strongest storms and winds to develop under the mid-level center in the evening.

Meanwhile, the low-level center remains mostly rain-free during the day until storms pop on the south side of the circulation and fill the gap between the two centers.

Assuming something similar happens today, I expect an uneventful morning, then we should end up with scattered downpours this afternoon and evening from Southeast Texas to South Texas.

That’s also when the winds will also pick up and gust at times above 40 mph. The mid-level center is tracking toward the coast between Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay while the low-level center is tracking toward Houston, so the greatest risk of heavy rain and squally winds will be more over South Texas than Southeast Texas.

Locally, I don’t expect anything anywhere near as intense as the considerable severe thunderstorm that swirled around Bertha’s circulation yesterday evening, just missing Houston as it plowed toward the coast with 70 mph winds.

As far as Fayette County, it looks like we’ve mossed out on a chance for meaningful rains.

—Travis Herzog ... See MoreSee Less